Daniel Kokotajlo on The Diary Of A CEO

Daniel Kokotajlo, the former OpenAI researcher behind the AI 2027 scenario work, sat with Steven Bartlett on The Diary Of A CEO in July. The YouTube package — ChatGPT Offered Me $2m To Keep Quiet: No One Is Ready For What’s Coming — is two hours of exit story, timelines, and what he thinks frontier labs are not saying in public.

The useful split is the same one this site uses on model charts. “I left, and this is why” is testimony. “There is a 70% chance of X by year Y” is a forecast. Testimony can be true while the forecast is wrong. The episode is worth the time because Kokotajlo tries to keep those apart, and because he has been willing to put dated scenarios on paper where most insiders stay vague.

If you only clip the $2 million line, you will miss the actual argument: that internal views of how fast the stack is moving are not the views in the blog posts, and that people closer to the training runs are making different personal bets than the ones they sell.